Posted on: October 31, 2011 1:21 pm
Edited on: October 31, 2011 1:27 pm

Rough Math, PL relegation, part I

After looking at these figures, playing an average of 2 games a week, though the Championship League may not have as high of quality as the Premier League, I've got to like the action.

Rough Math, team in parenthesis is last team surviving relegation drop):

1993-1994 (Ipswich Town 43) 42 matches played

    * Sheffield United 42
    * Oldham Athletic 40
    * Swindon Town 30

1994-1995 (Aston Villa 48)  42 matches played

    * Crystal Palace 45
    * Norwich City 43
    * Leicester City 29
    * Ipswich Town 27

(Longer schedule probably played in early years of PL, surely this year with 4 teams going down in 94-95)

Posted on: October 18, 2011 6:54 am

Talk of wanting to scrap Relegation/Promotion

Really, quick, how can this be?? Foreign owners have brought up plans wishing to scrap the Relegation/Promotion system of the English Leagues and while that sounds far fetched, they would just need a majority of owners to vote the system in. So, how would one determine the 20 teams that would always be in the Top Flight?? This would seem to be a matter of chance, after all, last year, we saw West Ham, Blackpool and Birmingham go down. Also, what right would a "small club" like Wigan have to be in the Premier League?? I've always admired a "small club" being able to make the top flight, that is how the system works but likewise, it would not be fair for a small club to be up there at the cost of the bad luck of "big clubs" as Leeds certainly are and possibly the Sheffield Clubs, United and Wednesday and in fact, West Ham United. I just don't get this "scrap relegation" talk or see any benefits in it.

But while here, I really do see the 4 team playoff of the Championship League, League I and II as rather brutal. I believe the 3rd-6th place teams play a one-on-one 2 game series with each other and then have a deciding game at Wembley after that between the 2 winners.  That's really tough but in the end I suppose fair.

It seems to me that over the last 2 years, we've seen Cardiff City and Nottingham Forest in the playoffs and not succeed. I believe some years, the last playoff team has won the 4 club playoff and I'm not completely sure if that is fair. Blackpool may have done that.

As of now, the playoff teams in the Championship League are taken by 3. Middlesbrough 4. Derby County 5. Brighton, Hove and Albion and 6. Hull City.

Anyway, there are plenty of articles right now on the "scrap relegation" movement and SAF, Sir Alex Ferguson has come out against it. We don't quite have that system in our most lucrative sports league, the NFL and but one envision what if we had a relegation system in American Football. But it's comparing apples and oranges, the two sports are too different. Some have wanted to see the NFL have 2 different conferences and all the teams are just lined up without divisions, meaning San Francisco, Dallas, Detroit would all be vying for the top places. It works well in the EPL but the NFL has been that way for many decades. Some want the MLS to go to an all one conference format as well. The current system may need to be finetuned in the MLS but overall, works fine.
Posted on: October 8, 2011 8:33 am
Edited on: October 9, 2011 10:22 pm

The weakest EPL Clubs.

  • Bolton, this is an obvious choice, they won their opener big over QPR but have sputtered to 6 straight losses since.  2 years ago, I believe they were in the red zone and hired away manager Owen Coyle from Burnley. Burnley without Coyle went into a tail spin and Bolton preceded to move up into safety. It's hard to feel pity for the Wanderers.
  • Blackburn, 1 win against Arsenal of all teams, memorable one at that. Blackburn during the International break went to tour the land of its owners, India. Blackburn defeated FC Pune 3-0. Somehow, I think this tour will lift the Rovers up some but again, letting Allardyce go has not endeared me to the ownership of the team. Still, I think Blackburn will be playing better.
  • Wigan, one can't help but think Wigan will again make the great escape out of relegation. Manager Roberto Martinez seems to be a standup guy but Wigan really needs to start playing up better and not have predictably poor performances reminding one of the mediocrity that another onetime Premier League team has shown, West Ham. It's almost seems that if one is going to see poor performances week in and week out, perhaps they belong in the Championship.
  • Queen's Park Rangers, QPR has had some good showing but has lost games vs. Bolton, Wigan and Fulham by an aggregate of 12 goals against, zero goals for against Bolton (4-0), Wigan (2-0) and Fulham (6-0). I think this shows that despite having Joey Barton, Sean Wright Phillips and a number of other good players, they may be the weakest of the 3 newly promoted teams.  Anyteam that loses in this manner is suspect. Swansea on the other hand, has started out the season with 4 clean sheets at home, an EPL record. Norwich City likewise, played at OT vs. Man Utd. very competitively and reminded me of Blackpool's form last season, playing an attractive game even in not winning.
  • Sunderland, the Black Cats at 1 win, 3 draws and 3 losses are showing some stability, this really continues from last season where Sunderland seem a poor team but still a cut above the bottom dwellers.
  • West Brom, the Baggies got off to a slow start and their fans will hope that is all it is. In their last 4 games they have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss. West Brom seem one playmaker away from a more secure position.

These are the teams susceptible to the drop, I firmly believe Wolverhampton have played mostly close games, losing to QPR 0-3 at home but besides that, they have a GD, goal differential of -4. I don't think they will have much trouble staying up, maybe be a bottom 6 or 7 team at season's end. Fulham likewise is now playing good football, amazingly blasting QPR 6-0. Everton I tell everyone is not as weak as some make them out to be. All the same, Everton is a question mark and perhaps others are right in that they are in for a dismal year. They do not seem to have a real go-to guy but have had acceptable performances in most games.
I view these teams after 7 games. This means that even 20% of the season has not been played so their can be a lot of change. We will see how this post looks in a few months time. All of the teams from 7th place with Aston Villa to last place have 2 wins or less.


Category: Soccer
Posted on: May 7, 2011 9:16 am
Edited on: May 7, 2011 9:56 am

Derbies and the final 2 games.

Just figuring out the math here, I would love to see Wigan win but I do go along with Lawro and think they can and will basically choke.

By the end of the weekend, I'd look for standings as being something like this.

Birmingham 40 points
Blackburn 38 points
Blackpool 35 points
Wigan 35 points
West Ham 35 points
Wolverhampton 34 points (sorry Wolves, I think West Brom is going to win this Derby)

Let's go through the PL Derbies real quick:

Aston Villa, Birmingham, Wolves and West Brom are all up in the Birmingham area, that is 4 teams or 20% of the PL teams,
London has 5, CFC, Tottenham, West Ham, Arsenal and Fulham, 25% of the teams as well. Queen's Park Rangers will constitute a 6th London team next year.
Manchester of couse, has 2 teams and are actually close to Blackburn/Bolton I have heard.
Blackburn, Bolton and Wigan are all in the same area.
Sunderland and Newcastle are very close to each other as are the Merseyside teams of Liverpool and Everton.
This leaves 2 other teams, Blackpool and Stoke City. The only teams truly isolated from the rest.


  • Fulham 
  • Tottenham
  • Manchester United 
  • Wolves

  • Bolton 
  • Manchester United

  • West Ham 
  • Stoke City

West Ham 

  • Wigan 
  • Sunderland


  • Sunderland 
  • Blackburn

Category: Soccer
Posted on: May 1, 2011 10:31 am
Edited on: May 1, 2011 10:33 am

And then there were 3 (games)

I can't get enough of this.

15. Birmingham City 39 points -17
16. Blackburn Rovders 38 poingts -14
17. Blackpool 35 points -22
18. Wigan 35 points -23
19. Wolverhampton 34 points -23
20. West Ham United 32 points -22

See soccerway.com for the complete table.  

Strength of schedule
Hardest to Easiest:
Blackpool vs. Man Utd and Tottenham
Blackburn vs. Man Utd.
West Ham vs. Man City
Brum vs. Tottenham

Now, getting down to the remaining crunch games for the last 5 or six games remaining. Relegation fighters emboldened and is mainly reserved for the last 5 or 6 teams.

May 1st:
Manchester City West Ham

May 7th:
Aston Villa Wigan
Newcastle Birmingham City
West Ham United Blackburn Rovers Very crucial for West Ham, surely they can win at home.
Tottenham Blackpool

May 8th:
Wolverhampton West Brom

May 14th:
Blackburn Rovers Manchester United
Blackpool Bolton Wanderers
Sunderland Wolverhampton

May 15th:
Birmingham City Fulham
Wigan West Ham Utd.

May 22nd:
Manchester United Blackpool
Stoke City Wigan
Tottenham Birmingham City
West Ham United Sunderland
Wolverhampton Blackburn Rovers

1st off, Wigan's game on 5/22 vs. Stoke City will be difficult whether Stoke City wins the FA Cup or loses, if Stoke is triumphant, they can't just play a sorry game and if they lose the FA Cup to Man City, will need to atone for themselves.

West Ham though having difficult games plays Blackburn and Wigan in consecutive games of which if they could win, surely would see them 'stay up'as the last game vs. Sunderland should be winnable as well.

Category: Soccer
Tags: relegation
Posted on: April 16, 2011 12:29 pm
Edited on: April 16, 2011 1:05 pm

Relegation Candidates Remaining Games

A quick scan of the most likely candidates to go down in the last 3 of the Premier League. This does not mean Birmingham, Aston Villa, Stoke City, Fulham are all safe but in all likelihood, I think they are. It's simply amazing that with Wigan facing Sunderland at the Stadium of Light next week, they look very alive to stay in the Premier League now. The Wolves with their opposition look to have a good chance to stay up, none of the teams are in the top 10 even. I believe as the season comes to a close, there may be some teams that will not care too much if they win or lose the very last game if they are guaranteed of staying up.

Sunderland, 5 games left:  
April 23rd: Wigan  
April 30th: Fulham  
May 7th: @Bolton  
May 14th: Wolverhampton  
May 22nd: @West Ham

Blackburn, 5 games left:  
April 25th Man City  
April 30th: Bolton
May 7th: @ West Ham
May 14th: Man Utd.
May 22nd: @ Wolverhampton

Wigan, 5 games left:
@ Aston Villa
West Ham
@ Stoke City

Blackpool, 5 games left:
Stoke City 
@Man Utd

West Ham
, 5 games left
@ Chelsea
@ Man City
Blackburn Rovers
@ Wigan

Wolverhampton, 6 games left
@ Stoke City
@ Birmingham City
West Brom
Blackburn Rovers

Looking at these schedules, I think West Ham is in big trouble with games vs. Chelsea and Man City. Still, that leaves 3 games where they can potentially win which should be close to enough for them. I think this game they lost after full time versus Aston Villa was in fact, very crucial.
Category: Soccer
Posted on: April 16, 2011 11:58 am

Latics win, Wigan out of relegation for now.

Unbelievably, Wigan finds themselves out of the red zone by defeating Blackpool, 1-3 at the 90th minute and if the West Ham/Aston Villa game remains drawn or the Hammers lose. Roberto Martinez dubbed Chelsea's single goal last week to defeat Wigan as questionable, so apparently, Wigan is now playing some good football.

Go to soccerway.com for the full table, Wolves have played one game less than the other bottom 6.

Sunderland can't win for anything. Steve Bruce's job in doubt? I'd think so. West Ham after having a fair run, now show themselves unable to get a key win.

Still, with between 5-6 games remaining, it looks like we will see a photo finish. Except for the Mackems who don't seem able to win right now, it definitely appears the 3 teams that go down will be 3 of the last 5 and that Brum, Villa, etc. should escape.

9th and 10th, Newcastle and West Brom, 39 points.

11-15th Fulham, Stoke City, Sunderland, Aston Villa, Birmingham City, 38 points

16th Blackburn 35 points

17th Wigan 34 points

18th Blackpool 33 points

19th West Ham 32 points

20th Wolverhampton 32 points.

Category: Soccer
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