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Tag:Meaningless Stats
Posted on: October 15, 2011 12:04 am
Edited on: October 15, 2011 12:16 am
 

A look at goals being scored in PL and Draws.

My gosh, I have a tendency to predict scores when taken as a total are a higher goal total than others, I mean, I picked about 4 2-2 draws in footy this weekend, 2 in the Championship League which "could" be right, more goals seem to be made in the Championship and the Saints, Southampton are a beast in that aspect. But I also risked it in the Liverpool Man Yoo games, hey, MUFC has scored 14 more goals than Liverpool this year (24-10), so I guess I picked this game with my heart, MUFC has conceded only 5 goals, Liverpool 8 goals and didn't half of those come against Tottenham in that 4-0 shellacking a few weeks ago. I also chance Stoke City Fulham going 2-2, I believe this could still be a possibility but thinking about it, Stoke City scores few goals, 4 so far this season, so I am guessing they can score half of their season total tomorrow?? Now it does seem like a bad pick but I made it. Fulham though has shown some fire lately, scoring 6 vs. QPR, drawing City 2-2 so maybe the pick has a chance. Stoke City's 4 goals for the year is the poorest so maybe some time, the levy has to break.

But since I did delve into it, here are "unofficial" counts on goals scored per week so I think actually, I should be aiming much lower than say, the 29 goals I picked in the week 8 games, not that the tally of total goals every week is that low but it is more of a case that one or two matches throws the total way high, I mean this year we've seen Man Yoo 8 Arsenal 2, last week we saw Fulham 6 QPR 0 and one Sunday morning, we saw two 4-0 scores.

Also, what is more likely? Draws of 0-0, 1-1 or 2-2? Or do we even have a 3-3 in there somewhere?? It's really not that pertinent unless you are making predictions.

We will look at this per the first seven weeks of the season.

Unofficial Count per Soccerway 

Number of goals scored by week:

  1.  18 goals scored, one game postponed, Tottenham, 1-1 had 2 draws, 0-0 had 3 draws. Total 5 draws the first week
  2.  23 goals scored,                                                   1-1 had 1 draw, 0-0 had 1 draw. Total 2 draws
  3.  31 goals scored                                                    0-0 had 2 draws. total 2 draws
  4.  22 goals scored,                                                   1 draw each at 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2 Total 3 draws
  5.  38 goals scored                                                    1 draw each at 1-1 and 2-2. Total 2 draws.
  6.  27 goals scored, this looks like an average type week, no extraordinary high scores, 1 draw at 0-0, 2 draws at 1-1, Total 3 draws
  7.  34 goals scored                                                    1 draw this week at 2-2.  1 Draw total.
Even an average of goals scored per week would seem to be fruitless, it depends on the highly one sided scores but for the record it is about 27.5 goals a week.

Draws, 8 at 0-0,  7 at 1-1, 3 at 2-2. So 2-2s are much more rarer while this season at least, 1-1 and 0-0 is about equal.  This meshes with 18 draws so far in the PL this year.

Even if this info could be seen as meaningful, I would have to see it over a long term.

So, I guess, my 29 goals picked for the PL is high for this weekend but there have been 3 weeks out of 7 with over 30 goals scored!! But for the 3rd time, it is the overly lopsided games that skews this average. I believe one week had the first two games shown on the schedule netting 10 goals by themselves. It's interesting how few goals even with the Tottenham Everton match postponent were scored in the first week.

Real quick now, let's see what teams are scoring the most in the PL, the answer is obvious, the 2 Manchester teams are at the top, CFC probably 3rd.

Goals Scored:
MUFC 24
Man City 23
CFC 17
Tottenham 11 and from one match less than most of the other Clubs except Everton.
Liverpool 10
Arsenal 10
Fulham 10, 6 in one game

------

Newcastle 9
Aston Villa 9
Bolton 9 , 5 in their 1st game.
Sunderland 9 so, with the most teams at 9 goals than any other team, would we consider this a sort of average? Not really. Sunderland scored 4 of these vs. Stoke City the morning Tottenham scorched Liverpool by the same margin.

Blackburn 8, 4 against Arsenal.

Norwich 7

Swansea 6
Wolverhampton 6
Everton 6 goals, 1 less game.

Wigan 5
West Brom 5 , this team had a real difficult start.
QPR 5

Stoke City 4 goals all year. Bottom of the pack.

So, I do think the above shows there is some predictability but a whole lot that isn't.

Real quick, in the Championship League:

Southampton has 25 goals, Leeds by virtue of the Friday win over Doncaster has 20 goals. Leeds struggled early in the season but haven't lost in at least 5 games. Doncaster has scored the fewest goals at 6 and are above safety as of now but by the end of this weekend's fixtures are bound to move down.

League 1
is rather equal Charlton and Huddersfield at 24 goals for the season, a number of teams with 20+ and only Exeter City apparently in the single digits with 6 goals after 12 games.

League 2 sees 6th place Port Vale (that is in Stoke City for those that don't know) with the most goals at 28!





 
 
 
 
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